Tuesday, October 31, 2006

Bush: the worst kind of lame duck situation...

From Strategic Forecasting, Inc:

The Election and Investigatory Powers of Congress
By George Friedman

There is now only a week to go before midterm congressional elections in the United States. The legislative outcome is already fairly clear. President George W. Bush lost the ability to drive legislation through Congress when he had to back away from his Social Security proposals. That situation will continue: The president will not be able to generate legislation without building coalitions. On the other hand, Congress will not be able to override his vetoes. That means that, regardless of whether the Democrats take the House of Representatives (as appears likely) or the Senate (which appears less likely but still possible), the basic architecture of the American legislative process will remain intact.

Democrats will not gain much power to legislate; Republicans will not lose much.

If the Democrats take control of the House from the Republicans, the most important change will not be that Nancy Pelosi becomes House Speaker, but that the leadership of House committees will shift -- and even more significant, that there will be upheaval of committee staffs. Republicans will shift to minority staff positions -- and have to let go of a lot of staffers -- while the Democrats will get to hire a lot of new ones.

These staffers serve two functions. The first is preparing legislation, the second is managing investigations. Given the likelihood of political gridlock, there will be precious little opportunity for legislation to be signed into law during the next two years -- but there likely will be ample opportunity and motivation for congressional investigations. Should the Democrats use this power to their advantage, there will be long-term implications for both the next presidential election and foreign policy options in the interim.

One of the most important things that the Republicans achieved, with their control of both the House and Senate, was to establish control over the type and scope of investigations that were permitted. Now, even if control of only the House should change hands, the Democrats will be making those decisions. And, where the GOP's goal was to shut down congressional investigations, the Democrat Party's goal will be to open them up and use them to shape the political landscape ahead of the 2008 presidential election.

It is important to define what we mean by "investigation." On the surface, congressional investigations are opportunities for staffers from the majority party to wield subpoena power in efforts to embarrass their bosses' opponents. The investigations also provide opportunities for members of Congress and senators to make extensive speeches that witnesses have to sit and listen to when they are called to testify -- a very weird process, if you have ever seen it.

Congressional investigations are not about coming to the truth of a matter in order for the laws of the republic to be improved for the common good. They are designed to extract political benefit and put opponents in the wrong. (Republicans and Democrats alike use the congressional investigative function to that end, so neither has the right to be indignant.)

For years, however, Democrats have been in no position to unilaterally call hearings and turn their staffs and subpoena powers loose on a topic -- which means they have been precluded from controlling the news cycle. The media focus intensely on major congressional hearings. For television networks, they provide vivid moments of confrontation; and the reams of testimony, leaked or official, give the print media an enormous opportunity to look for embarrassing moments that appear to reveal something newsworthy. In the course of these hearings, there might even be opportunities for witnesses to fall into acts of perjury -- or truth-telling -- that can lead to indictments and trials.

To reverse their position, the Democrats need not capture both the House and Senate next week. In fact, from the party's standpoint, that might not even be desirable. The Senate and House historically have gotten in each other's way in the hearing process. Moreover, there are a lot of Democratic senators considering a run for the presidency, but not many members of Congress with those ambitions. Senators who get caught up in congressional hearings can wind up being embarrassed themselves -- and with the competing goals of Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and some of the other candidates, things could wind up a mess.

But if the House alone goes to Democrats, Pelosi would be positioned to orchestrate a series of hearings from multiple committees and effectively control the news cycles. Within three months of the new House being sworn in, the political landscape could be dominated by hearings -- each week bringing new images of witnesses being skewered or news of embarrassing files being released.

Against this backdrop, a new generation of Democratic congressmen would be making their debuts on the news networks, both while sitting on panels, and on the news channels afterward.

Politically, this would have two implications. First, the ability of the White House to control and direct public attention would decline dramatically. Not only would the White House not be able to shut down unwanted debate, but it would lack the ability even to take part in setting the agenda. Each week's subject would be chosen by the House Democratic leadership.

Second, there will be a presidential election in two years that the Democrats want to win. Therefore, they would use congressional hearings to shape public opinion along the lines their party wants. The goal would be not only to embarrass the administration, but also to showcase Democratic strengths.

The Senate can decide to hold its own hearings, of course, and likely would if left in Republican hands. The problem is that, at the end of the day, the most interesting investigations would involve the Bush administration and corporations that can be linked to it. A GOP-controlled Senate could call useful hearings, but they would be overwhelmed by the Democratic fireworks. They just would not matter as much.

So let's consider, from a foreign policy standpoint, what would be likely matters for investigation:

What did the Bush administration really know about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq? Did Bush dismiss advice from the CIA on Iraq?

Did the administration ignore warnings about al Qaeda attacks prior to 9/11?

These, of course, would be the mothers of all investigations. Everything would be dragged out and pored over. The fact that there have been bipartisan examinations by the 9/11 commission would not matter: The new hearings would be framed as an inquiry into whether the 9/11 commission's recommendations were implemented -- and that would open the door to re-examine all the other issues.

Following close on these would be investigations into:

Whether the Department of Homeland Security is effective.

Whether the new structure of the intelligence community works.

Whether Halliburton received contracts unfairly -- a line of inquiry that could touch Vice President Dick Cheney.

Whether private contractors like Blackwater are doing appropriate jobs in Iraq.

Whether the Geneva Conventions should apply in cases of terrorist detentions.

Whether China is violating international trade agreement.

And so on. Every scab would be opened -- as is the right of Congress, the tendency of the nation in unpopular wars, and likely an inevitable consequence of these midterm elections.

We can expect the charges raised at these hearings to be serious, and to come from two groups. The first will be Democratic critics of the administration. These will be unimportant: Such critics, along with people like former White House security adviser Richard Clarke, already have said everything they have to say. But the second group will include another class -- former members of the administration, the military and the CIA who have, since the invasion of Iraq, broken with the administration.

They have occasionally raised their voices -- as, for instance, in Bob Woodward's recent book -- but the new congressional hearings would provide a platform for systematic criticism of the administration. And many of these critics seem bruised and bitter enough to avail themselves of it.

This intersects with internal Republican politics. At this point, the Republicans are divided into two camps. There are those who align with the Bush position: that the war in Iraq made sense and that, despite mistakes, it has been prosecuted fairly well on the whole.

And there are those, coalesced around Sens. Chuck Hagel and John Warner, who argue that, though the rationale for the war very well might have made sense, its prosecution by Donald Rumsfeld has led to disaster.

The lines might be evenly drawn, but for the strong suspicion that Sen. John McCain is in the latter camp. McCain clearly intends to run for president and, though he publicly shows support for Bush, there is every evidence that McCain has never forgiven him for the treatment he received in the primaries of 2000. McCain is not going to attack the president, nor does he really oppose the war in Iraq, but he has shown signs that he feels that the war has not been well prosecuted.

This view, shared publicly by recently retired military commanders who served in Iraq, holds out Rumsfeld as the villain. It is not something that McCain is going to lead the charge on, but in taking down Rumsfeld, McCain would be positioned to say that he supported the war and the president -- but not his secretary of defense, who was responsible for overseeing the prosecution of the war. From McCain's point of view, little would be more perfect than an investigation into the war by a Democrat-controlled House during which former military and Defense Department officials pounded the daylights out of Rumsfeld.

This would put whole-hearted Republican supporters of the president in a tough position and give McCain -- who, as a senator, would not have to participate in the hearings -- space to defend Bush's decision but not his tactics. The hearings also would allow him to challenge Democratic front-runners (Clinton and Obama) on their credentials for waging a war. They could be maneuvered into either going too far and taking a pure anti-war stance, or into trying to craft a defense policy at which McCain could strike.

To put it another way, aggressively investigating an issue like the war could wind up blowing up in the Democrats' faces, but that is so distant and subtle a possibility that we won't worry about it happening -- nor will they. What does seem certain, however, is this: The American interest in foreign policy is about to take an investigatory turn, as in the waning days of the Vietnam War. Various congressional hearings, like those of the Church Committee, so riveted the United States in the 1970s and so tied down the policymaking bureaucracy that crafting foreign policy became almost impossible.

George W. Bush is a lame duck in the worst sense of the term. Not only are there no more elections he can influence, but he is heading into his last two years in office with terrible poll ratings. And he is likely to lose control of the House of Representatives -- a loss that will generate endless hearings and investigations on foreign policy, placing Bush and his staff on the defensive for two years. Making foreign policy in this environment will be impossible.

Following the elections, five or six months will elapse before the House Democrats get organized and have staff in place. After that, the avalanche will fall in on Bush, and 2008 presidential politics will converge with congressional investigations to overwhelm his ability to manage foreign policy. That means the president has less than half a year to get his house in order if he hopes to control the situation, or at least to manage his response.

Meanwhile, the international window of opportunity for U.S. enemies will open wider and wider.

Send questions or comments on this article to analysis@stratfor.com.

Wrap...

3 comments:

THIRD WORLD WAR said...

VOTE FOR GOOD GUYS REPUBLICANS- DUMP BAD GUYS DEMOCRATS: by KALKI GAUR
Kalki Gaur, Editor World Press Club, Washington DC, 7:00 AM, Wednesday, November 1, 2006.
GOOD GUYS Vs BAD GUYS: United States is a Two-Headed Giant, where One head is of the Good Guy Republican American that wants to create American Empire. The Second head is of Bad Guys Democrats that wants to make White House the Servant Quarters of the Church and Papacy. Good Guys want to Rule the Oil World, wage war on Terrorism and befriend India and Democracies. Bad Guys want Pope to Rule America and nurture Islamic Terrorism and Communist intolerance and overthrow democracies. Choice is yours. Vote your conscience on 7th November 2006. Vote for Virtue and Dump Evil.
REJECT DEMOCRATIC AGENDA OF DECEPTION NEWSPEAK DOUBLETHINK: Democratic Party, Presidents Administrations are experts in Deception and fool people by proving that Black is White, Upside is Downside, Good is Bad, Evil is Virtue and this is recognized worldwide as Wilsonian Policy of Deception Newspeak Doublethink. Republicans especially Bush and Rice are straight shooters. Petro-Pax-Americana in Afghanistan, Iraq and possibly Iran, is a Virtue and good for American economy and a moral imperative for War on Islamic Terrorism. Vote against Democratic Deception Newspeak. Clinton Carter Kennedy weakened America. Reagan and Bush empowered America and destroyed Communism.
DEMOCRATS UNFIT FOR OVAL OFFICE: American Blacks, Latinos and WASPs should vote for the Republicans in elections 206 and 2008 to protect and empower secular Petro-Pax-Americana. The Carter, Clinton and Kennedy Administrations represented the New Dark Age of Axis of Medieval that harmed the national interests of the United States by extra-constitutional misuse of the power of the White House to implement the hidden Iconoclast Monotheist Agenda of the Church. The Election 2006 is the electoral clash of Democratic Medievalism Vs Republican Machiavellian Colonialism. Democrats have offered no policy alternatives, except to deploy Inquisitions for Republican sexual digressions, the same Democrats who opposed Monica Lewinski allegations. The 2006 Election Clash of Religious Democratic Medievalism Vs Secular Republican Petro-Colonialism is a Real Choice for American Voters. Americans have to choose between Pope’s lobbyists or Oil lobbyists, and between Fundamentalism-Terrorism Axis or War on Terrorism. American Voters now have an election opportunity to choose between Democratic Religious Medievalism and accommodation of Islamic Terrorism and secular Republican Machiavellian Petro-Colonialism and War on Islamic Terrorism. Democrats want the Global New Dark Age to descend on Earth. Republicans wants the New Age of Colonialism in 21st Century. Democratic Party represents Dark Age Medievalism. Republican Party represents Secular Machiavellian Modernism. The Two Party System no longer represents the same wine in differently colored bottles. Jimmy Carter, Henry Kissinger, Zbigniew Brzezinski, Samuel P. Huntington, Madeleine Albright represent the pro-China patriarchal iconoclast fundamentalist intolerant Axis of Medieval in American Politics that seeks to implement the End of Time eschatology of Prophetic Christians that conducted foreign policy to implement the religious agenda through an alliance with genocidal Islamic terrorism and Communist extremism. George Bush and Condoleezza Rice represent the morally right secular axis of modernity that seeks to implement the Oil agenda through an alliance with nuclear India and via War on Islamic terrorism. The elections of November 2006 and 2006 present to American Voters an opportunity to choose between Medievalism and Modernity. The Congressional Cox Report Jan 1999, details how Democrats allowed the theft of American nuclear technology to China and other countries? Global Axis of Medieval engineered the transfer of nuclear weapon technology to Pakistan, Iran, Malaysia and North Korea to ignite Christian-Islamic Armageddon to fulfill End of Time Eschatology.
APOCALYPTIC AGENDA OF JIMMY CARTER IS EVIL CORE OF AXIS OF MEDIEVAL: To Republican Neocons, Democrat Jimmy Carter was a Traitor to USA, as he refused to invade Iran to free Americans. As a Democratic President Jimmy Carter made United States a laughing stock of the world and he betrayed United States by refusing to attack Iran to liberate American embassy prisoners and now he is conspiring to sabotage Republican President George Bush’s determined effort to tame Iran. Jimmy Carter is the patron-Saint Father of Ayatollahism, Islamic theocracy and Islamic Terrorism. Jimmy Carter symbolizes Evil Medievalism, which is morally wrong. George Bush & Condi Rice symbolizes Machiavellian Colonialism, which is morally right.
PRESIDENT JIMMY CARTER FATHER OF ISLAMIC TERRORISM: Jimmy Carter Created Terrorism. George Bush wages War on Terrorism. President Jimmy created Islamic terrorism and Iranian Shiite Theocracy. President Jimmy carter organized the overthrow of enlightened Shah of Iran and engineered the enthronement of Ayatollah Khomenini. Jimmy Carter sabotaged democratically elected government of Prime Minister Shahpour Bakhtiar and ruled out the transfer of power to Military generals in Iran. The pro-Islamic fundamentalism and anti-Islamic modernization policies put into place by President Jimmy Carter, while he was in office, at behest of Christian Religious Right Conservative Conspiracy laid the Islamic terrorist forces in motion that resulted in Islamic terrorist attacks of 9/11/2001. President Carter has been the patron saint of Osama Ben Laden and al Qaeda. President carter could be held responsible for 9/11 terrorist attacks. Novice President Clinton appointed the officials of the Carter Secretary of State to first Clinton administration, who conspired to legitimize Islamic terrorism, al Qaeda and Osama Ben Laden. President Carter should be worshipped at Mecca as American Father of Islamic Terrorism, Islamic Theocracy, Al Qaeda and Osama Ben Laden and his likes. The religious right conspiracy that Jimmy Carter presides over could cause more harm to the secular United States than that of his protégé Islamic terrorism. Ideas of Jimmy Carter present greater threat to secular USA than Islamic terrorism.
JIMMY CARTER CREATED ISLAMIC & NORTH KOREAN ATOM BOMB: Ex-President Jimmy Carter is responsible for the North Korean Nuclear explosion by his negotiations with North Korea during Clinton Administration. President Carter cemented the Mecca-Vatican ties that united the forces of extremism and fundamentalism. President Carter was very friendly with the Jones of Guyana that resulted in the massacre of American Christians in Guyana and murder of American lawmaker in the jungles of Guyana. As the leader of Christian religious right conservative conspiracy and patron of Islamic extremism, Islamic fundamentalism, Islamic terrorism and Islamic theocracy, President carter is engaged in implementing the agenda of Apocalyptic End of Time Eschatology Teleology now. If white Western Christian Civilization continue to accept Jimmy Carter as responsible American politician by virtue of his being ex-President then the fate of the Apocalyptic White Christian world would be doomed to the delight of Prophetic Christians as the advice of President Jimmy Carter can only lead to the death of the Christian Civilization as we know it. More than Osama Ben Laden, Christians like Jimmy Carter could cause the Apocalyptic End of White Christian Civilization in not so distant a future. Just as Pope conspired with barbarian invaders to Rome in 415 AD, similarly Democrats like Jimmy Carter conspiring with Islamic terrorism to engineer the descent of New Global Dark Age in Western hemisphere in 21st Century. Secular USA can also fall in 21st Century, just as Roman Empire fell in 415 AD, once religious extremism got control over Roman Empire. Now, the Islamic terrorism and Christian fundamentalism presents the threat to USA, similar to that presented by barbarian invasions of Roman Empire in 415 AD. Christian Fundamentalism might have provided logistic and ideological support to Wahhabi terrorists for 9/11 attacks on secular United States, especially in the ensuing Anthrax attacks. Patriotic WASPs need to be vigilant in ongoing War on Terrorism to ward off dangers of sabotage for Axis of Medievalism. Next time Islamic terrorists will attack United States with Islamic Nukes, to fulfill the Apocalyptic Fatima Prophesy of Armageddon. Prophetic Christians might foolishly join the War of Religions on the side of nuke-armed Islamic terrorism. Patriotic WASPs must take preventive measures to break the emerging Nexus of Islamic terrorism and Apocalyptic Prophetic Christianity. Democrats created Islamic Atom Bomb, and Republicans fight to tame Islamic Atom Bomb.
CARTER AGAINST USA-INDIA NUKE DEAL: President Jimmy Carter is against Indo-US Nuke Deal reported HindustanTimes.com Friday, October 27, 2006. On a visit to India after 28 years, former American President Jimmy Carter saw no threat to Asian peace or world peace from India’s intentions to acquire atomic energy sources to generate power, but is firm that New Delhi ought to sign the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Though he has no authority in government to thwart the deal, Carter does not favor the Indo-US civil nuclear deal because, he said, there is need to discourage testing and development of nuclear weapons and the spread of fissile material. Hastening to add that his concerns were global, not India-specific, Carter said, "any nation with nuclear weapons should be under the NPT. It is my hope that the NPT becomes universally acceptable," said the 82-year-old Nobel laureate, who was severely critical of the US administration’s handling of the North Korean nuclear issue. Carter said he hoped other aspects of the bilateral relationship would not be affected if the Indo-US civil nuclear deal fails to go through the US Congressional process.
AXIS OF MEDIEVAL IN AMERICA SEEKS TO DESTROY SECULAR USA: Jimmy Carter represents the Evil Core of Axis of Medieval Fundamentalism. Wahhabi Al Qaeda represent the Core of Islamic Medievalism. Beijing China represents the Evil Core of Axis of Communist Medievalism. The Pure Evil resides at the Core of the Global Axis of Medievalism that conspiring to descend New Global Dark Age on the world in 21st Century to implement the End of Time Apocalyptic agenda. What one can expect from Jimmy carter who is the Father of Islamic Theocracy, Islamic Terrorism, Islamic fundamentalism? Jimmy Carter is so ludicrous that it is not worth wasting time on him, as he is determined to bring White Christian Civilization to an Apocalyptic End in alliance with his buddies in Iran to cause Christian-Islamic Armageddon, by his evil design to sabotage USA-India Nuclear deal that President George Bush signed with India.
BUSH REPUBLICANS ARE MORALLY GOOD VIRTUE & RIGHT: The President Bush is more competent than John Kennedy, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton. The people and Capitol Hill have a choice to make, whether they support the morally Good George Bush or morally Evil Jimmy Carter. The choice that the people of the United States would make, shall determine the fate of the Christian World and would determine whether likes of Jimmy carter would succeed in causing Apocalyptic damage to Christian civilization, with their determined pursuit of End of Time agenda. Apocalyptic teleology of ex-President Democratic Jimmy Carter presents greater threat to the secular WASP Protestant United States than al Qaeda or Osama Ben Laden. It is high time that Republican Neocons should grab the horns of the Evil directly rather than let is cause Armageddon by stealth to establish theocracy in USA. As President, Jimmy carter made United States the laughing stock of the world by his failure to attack Iran to free American embassy staff imprisoned by Ayatollah Khomeini. Was President carter on the payroll of Ayatollah Khomeini that Pentagon did nothing to invade Iran? Many patriotic WASPs consider President Jimmy Carter a traitor for his failure to use force to liberate American embassy officials held prisoners in Tehran. As a diplomat and Commander in Chief president Jimmy carter holds the greatest distinction of formulating most stupid foreign policy during his tenure as the President of USA. With Jimmy Carter as leader and a friend the United States does not need any enemy. So far as foreign policy is considered Jimmy Carter can only be called a Traitor to USA when compared to the patriotic George Bush and Condi Rice. In the eyes of patriotic WASPs in American politics Democrat Jimmy Carter represents the Core of Axis of Evil and on other hand Republican Bush-Condi Rice represent Core of Axis of Virtue. Axis of Evil caused 9/11 Terrorism and Axis of Virtue waged war on Terrorism. The Election of November 2006 and forthcoming November 2008 Elections, provide American Voters a Clear Choice, whether to Vote for Axis of Evil or vote for Axis of Virtue. Remember the 9/11 attacks would not have taken place without the active involvement of Core of Axis of Medieval. Remember the Pure Evil core of Axis of Medieval wants to destroy secular WASP United States just as in 415 AD it destroyed secular Roman Empire to cause European Medieval Dark Age, to engineer in the 21st Century the descent of Looming Global Dark Age on the White Christian Western World, to fulfill the End of Time eschatology of Prophetic Christians. To secular WASPs and patriotic Neocons Jimmy Carter and Osama Ben Laden represents the two sides of same Coin of Evil. Hindu, Buddhist and Pagan Civilizations representing more than 3.5 Billion people denounce the Evil represented by likes of Jimmy Carter as well as Osama Ben Laden. Dear American Voters, please prudently think before you vote on November 7, 2006, it is a vote for or against Evil.
ANTI-BLACK DEMOCRATIC PARTY: From Civil War up to 1964 Democrats were anti-Blacks, anti-Latinos and anti-immigrants. Party of Lincoln, the Republican Party had been pro-Blacks from the Civil war up to 1964. President Carter (1977-1981) and President Clinton (1992-2000) engineered to kick out Blacks and Latinos our of leadership position in the Democratic corridors of power and replaced them by fundamentalist religious leaders and Wall Street donors. In American Elections 2006, the Republican Party is the preferred party of choice for Blacks and Latinos. The Democrat’s Ideology of Medievalism seeks to break the Constitutional Wall that separates the State and the Church in the United States. The Republican Modernism seeks to empower American Blacks vis-à-vis East European immigrants and secures Energy Security of Industrial America by controlling Oil and Gas reserves of the Middle East. If you want to vote for the Party of Church, then vote Democrats. If you want to vote for Pax Americana then vote for Republicans. The choice that you would make shall determine the 21st Century.
Kalki Gaur, Editor World Press Club, Washington DC, 1st November, 2006, Wednesday, 7:00 AM
Blog: http://Indiatalking.com/blog/kalkigaur/ Blog http://clearblogs.com/kalkigaur/
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Kalki Gaur, “GLOBAL CLASH OF RACES” (2006)
Kalki Gaur, “DIPLOMACY OF CIVILIZATIONS” (2006)
Kalki Gaur, “MANIFESTO OF NEOCONSERVATISM” (2006)
Kalki Gaur, “HINDU HOLY GITA – MOKSA VIA RELIGIOUS WARS” (2006)
Kalki Gaur, “DA VINCI CODE AS CLASH OF RELIGIONS” (2006)
Kalki Gaur, “GLOBAL CLASH OF RELIGIONS” (2006)
Kalki Gaur, “GNOSTIC BIBLE” (2006)
Kalki Gaur, “POPULIST MANIFESTO” (2006)
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Kalki Gaur, “GLOBAL CLASH OF RACES” (2006)
Kalki Gaur, “DIPLOMACY OF CIVILIZATIONS” (2006)
Kalki Gaur, “MANIFESTO OF NEOCONSERVATISM” (2006)
Kalki Gaur, “HINDU HOLY GITA – MOKSA VIA RELIGIOUS WARS” (2006)
Kalki Gaur, “DA VINCI CODE AS CLASH OF RELIGIONS” (2006)
Kalki Gaur, “GLOBAL CLASH OF RELIGIONS” (2006)
Kalki Gaur, “GNOSTIC BIBLE” (2006)
Kalki Gaur, “POPULIST MANIFESTO” (2006)
The complete text of 5,000 pages of Books by Kalki Gaur available for free download at following Kalki Blogs for academic and non-commercial usage.
http://360.yahoo.com/gaurkalki ;
http://360.yahoo.com/clashofreligions ;
http://360.yahoo.com/diplomacyofcivilizations ;
http://clearblogs.com/kalkigaur/ ;
http://kalkigaur.blogstream.com/ ;
http://my.opera.com/kalkigaur/blog/ ;
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http://indiatalking.com/blog/kalkigaur/ ;
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Alexander White said...

You can always tell the crazy ones because of their incredibly-long, grammatically-incorrect monologues.

Watch 'n Wait said...

You are so right, Alexander!